Presidential Prognostications for 2008

In the last fifty years, Americans have chosen their presidents from the following categories:

General Officer
Senator
Vice President or former Vice President
Incumbent President
Governor or former Governor

In fact, you have to go all the way back to Herbert Hoover, elected in 1928, to find a president not from one of these categories. Hoover’s highest office had been Secretary of Commerce. I predict that the winner of the 2008 presidential race will fall into one of the categories.

I further predict that no general officer will be elected. The last time was the re-election of Eisenhower in 1956. They don’t make Supreme Commanders like Ike anymore. Moreover, no Senator will be elected. The last time was Kennedy in a squeaker in 1960. Since then, Senators have had to rub the stink of the Senate off of them by serving as Vice President before being electable as President.

Let’s look at the eleven most recent elections by category of candidate:

Year Republican Democrat Winner

2004 Incumbent Senator Incumbent*
2000 Governor VP Governor*
1996 Senator Incumbent Incumbent
1992 Incumbent Governor Governor
1988 VP Governor VP
1984 Incumbent ex VP Incumbent
1980 Governor Incumbent Governor
1976 Incumbent Governor Governor
1972 Incumbent Senator Incumbent
1968 ex VP VP ex VP
1964 Senator Incumbent Incumbent*

* probable fraudulent result (UPDATE: except for 1964 in which case the asterisk is a flub.)

The Senator candidate always loses. Moreover, the VPs who lost in 2000, 1984 and 1968 were all former Senators. (The winner in 1968 was also a former Senator but we now see where that led us.) Senate service seems to be the kiss of death for a candidate. Accordingly, the parties should not nominate Senators if they want to win the election. Five of six elections involving a governor, the governor won. Dukakis was the only governor to be defeated, and that was in the 1988 Battle of Charisma.

I predict, therefore, that the next President, assuming that an election is actually held in 2008, will be someone who has been a Governor or Vice President.

Dick Cheney is out of the question for the GOP because of poor health and excessive evil, and Dan Quayle has not been adequately repackaged, so the Republicans will have to dredge up a Governor, preferably one that is not too overtly insane.

The Democrats have Al Gore who would be a credible candidate. Mondale is too old and too long out of the game. Otherwise they will need a governor. Corzine won’t do because (a) he is bald, (b) he has facial hair, and (c) it would be too soon to cleanse him of his Senatiness.

Also, you have to be southern (Johnson, Carter, Clinton), western (Nixon, Reagan) or fake southern (Bush, Bush). The only northern President since Kennedy was Ford, and he was never elected. So, it will have to be a governor from south of the Potomac and Ohio Rivers or west of the Mississippi River.

Finally, the winning candidate will be male, Protestant, and of European descent. He will have been born between 1938 and 1954. He will have a college education and probably a law degree, one of which will be from an Ivy League or equivalent school.