GOP on the Horns of a Dilemma

How can a GOP presidential candidate win in 2008? Nominate someone who will pander to the Christianist authoritarian base of 25% who will then convince more than third of the rest of the electorate that he was just pandering to those nutjobs and didn’t really mean any of it. It would help if the Christianists played along and pretended that they were unhappy with the candidate’s positions but would vote for him anyway while holding their noses. That’s the tried and true method that has worked so far since 1980. Of course, in 2008 there will be the Bush fatigue factor to reckon with, and anyone who can be tied to Bushevik policies will have a hard row to hoe.

The dilemma facing the GOP is that a peace candidate or a libertarian leaning candidate might have a genuine shot in the general election, but the Christianists are rabid for war and hate freedom and wouldn’t support him in the quest for the nomination. Accordingly, the GOP must pin its hopes on (a) a favorable outcome in Iraq, something they aren’t going to be able to bring about; (b) some way to blame Democrats for the unfavorable outcome, something that we have to hope the Democrats will be able to fend off; or (c) a dramatic escalation of the conflict that will make the electorate nostalgic for the current debacle. A monumental disaster of epic proportions may be what the Busheviks are building up to, because they know that massive failures by government are often rewarded and that a frightened populace will act irrationally and against its own interests. If the Busheviks can put us all in some kind of real danger, the fear factor may throw everything wide open. The electorate won’t be looking for a capable statesman, but will be looking for an apparent action hero.